3/19 - Market Commentary & Expiration

If you have been listening to any market veterans these last many weeks, you have almost certainly heard many say that they have never seen anything like this market, especially with regard to the huge swings in prices and volatility.

Today was just another example of that sentiment.  The only thing we know, at least for now, is that the trend in place is still down…  until it isn’t.

Also, we haven’t seen these kind of wild swings in price since 2000 - early 2003, and we all know how those years turned out.   3+ years…  This current bear, based on all of this continuing bad news, has been showing these big volatility signs to the downside for only about 5 months…

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With expiration tomorrow, we have been spending much of our time yesterday and today, and will spend much of it tomorrow, making adjustments to our ongoing and carryover positions.

If anyone is holding any of the trades we have entered over the past couple of weeks…   

GOOG - Exiting tomorrow with possible adjustments 

DELL - The long side of this trade will expire worthless tomorrow unless there is a huge BO above $32.50 and the position will experience a small loss after we exited the Short side of the trade for a small profit.

YHOO - We will be rolling this trade out as we believe the trade is still live though it is currently negative.

JOYG - We thought we may have the position nailed for a near Max Gain after yesterday but when today started deteriorating we decided to buy 1 MAR 65 Put for $.70 to reduce our risk even further if the price continues to fall.  Our BE to the downside is ~$62 and will now profit below that price.  The BE to the upside is now ~$68.50 with the Max Gain at $70 at ~$1.00/Contract profit.

TMA - The Net Short position was closed at near the Max Gain and the Net Long position risk is significantly reduced by our actions last week.  We will update tomorrow on the status of this position but it appears that the remaining portion of the Short side of the net Long will close for near Max Gain ($2.45/Contract), and we may hold onto the remaining Long JAN 10 - 5 Calls.

Please send us a note tonight so we can make sure you are updated in real-time as we either exit or adjust these positions tomorrow.

Coach BD